Swab antigen: when will the epidemic end?

Since the outbreak of covid-19, human beings have coexisted with this infectious disease for more than two years.

During this period, covid-19 has mutated again and again. Under the condition that humans continue to name covid-19 with Greek letters, the Greek letters are almost insufficient.

For the epidemic, the biggest question people now have is when the COVID-19 epidemic will end?

Some people believe that the three pandemics in history can give some reference to the answer to this question. Now let's see how these three pandemics disappeared.

Swab antigen: when will the epidemic end?

The first pandemic of infectious diseases in human history was the black death in the 14th century.

The first record of this great plague was in Italy, and soon spread to the whole of Europe, causing tens of millions of people to be infected. Because of its strong lethality, the black death finally killed at least 20million people in Europe, accounting for 1/3 of the total population of Europe at that time.

There have been different opinions about the cause of this great plague.

The more recognized view is that the Mongols in the western expedition threw the bodies of pestis into European cities, and then caused the outbreak of the black death.

There are two reasons why this great plague is so fierce.

The first reason is that I don't know much about the black death. We modern people all know that pestis is caused by pestis bacilli, but people at that time did not know, and pestis bacilli was not discovered until 1894.

If you don't know the cause, you naturally don't know how to deal with the black death, resulting in the situation that the black death can't be controlled.

The second reason is the division of Europe.

In the face of the epidemic, the organizational capacity of a country directly determines its performance in the face of the epidemic.

As a divided region, Europe naturally cannot be organized.

Therefore, smarter European cities know to close the city gate and prevent black death patients from entering. However, most European cities cannot control the population, resulting in a large number of black death patients fleeing everywhere, which intensifies the spread of black death.

As for how the plague did not exist, many scientists believe that the death rate of the black death is too high.

The death rate of most kinds of pestis is more than 90%. Under such a high death rate, the population it spreads is far lower than the population it kills.

As a result, the total number of people infected with the black death is getting smaller and smaller. After this great plague killed one third of the population in Europe, it can't be spread.

The second pandemic of infectious diseases occurred in smallpox from the end of the 15th century to the 17th century.

In fact, the records of smallpox are very early, as early as 1100 BC in ancient Egypt.

Later, in the Jin Dynasty, smallpox also spread to China.

The death rate of this disease is not as high as that of bubonic plague, but its transmission is very strong. When smallpox was recorded in China, it can be determined that it has long been distributed in Eurasia.

Different scholars have different views on how many people were killed by smallpox, because the time span of its spread is too large.

Some scholars believe that smallpox has wiped out 70million people, but others believe that smallpox has wiped out 500million people in the world in the process of transmission for hundreds of years.

As for the epidemic of smallpox, the most shocking thing is its spread in America.

After arriving in the American continent, the Europeans gave the clothes and blankets used by smallpox patients to the Native Americans.

The smallpox virus had never reached the Americas before, so the immune system of Native Americans was directly punctured after encountering the smallpox virus.

When Europeans arrived in the Americas, there were about 30million Native Americans. When the smallpox epidemic ended in the Americas, there were only about 1million Native Americans left.

As for how smallpox did not exist, it was because human beings found a vaccine for smallpox virus.

Smallpox has a characteristic, that is, people infected with smallpox or the same homologous virus will not be infected for a second time. Therefore, Chinese people have long ground the scabs of smallpox patients into powder and poured them into the nasal cavity of healthy people for vaccination.

Later, vaccinations were invented in Europe, and smallpox was completely defeated.

The third pandemic was the Spanish pandemic that broke out in 1918.

Although this pandemic is called Spanish pandemic, its origin is not Spain, but the United States, so some people also call it American pandemic.

At that time, when World War I broke out, Americans brought the plague to the European battlefield.

At that time, because of the tight war, all countries took strict control measures on the news, and reporters were not allowed to report the epidemic in the army.

However, Spain did not control the news because it did not participate in the first World War.

This made Europeans at that time have an illusion that there was no epidemic on the front battlefield, but the plague broke out in Spain.

Later, the U.S. flu spread throughout Europe, and countries began to report it one after another. However, the previous reports of Spain have long been popular, so everyone believes that the plague broke out from it, and Spain was thus blamed.

There has been no final conclusion about how many people were killed by this plague. Because countries have adopted strict news control, scholars cannot get the death data of countries in this plague.

At present, it is estimated that 25million to 100million people died in this pandemic in the United States, while the global population was only 1.7 billion at that time, which can be said to be a heavy casualty.

As for how the plague did not end, in fact, it has not ended.

The virus that caused the pandemic in the United States is an influenza virus, and the plague caused by this virus is now known as influenza A (H1N1).

So the pandemic in the United States has not ended, it just lurked.